Showing posts with label 2016 prospects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 prospects. Show all posts

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

Why the prickly pear is ripe for investment

There’s a host of global consumer trends that smart investors should take note of this year, says market researcher Mintel.

 Uber, Airbnb, prickly pears, bottled water – all things smart investors should watch in 2016, says market research firm Mintel.

Space and time are at a premium, it says in its latest survey of consumer trends, a fact which is creating new marketplaces as consumers wait less, own less and rent and share more.
Firms that switch on to this trend will capitalise.

“We are going to see a slew of new businesses seeking to hire out homes, parking and storage spaces, as well as deliver to us within the hour,” says Mintel. Young people in particular – the millennials – are keen to explore “solutions that seek to maximise the usage and availability of temporary, transient space for storage, parking, working and sleeping.”

Take the international accommodation bookings website Airbnb. Fresh from investing $1 billion in China in 2015, the firm “is expanding into storage, mindful of start-ups like Roost that are trying to develop this market.”

Uber is also shaking up the taxi sector. “The spread of Uber is sparking protest and competition. Regardless of whether or not legislators clip its wings, the model is here to stay,” says Mintel. In its wake have come apps like Maaxi in London – that allows consumers to reserve individual seats in black cabs – and sharing systems like Scooterino in Rome.

“Savvy automotive brands are embracing the model, with Ford launching its own peer-to-peer car sharing scheme in a number of cities,” says Mintel.

Also expect more initiatives like France’s Parkego and Spain’s LetMeSpace start-ups, which help people to make a profit from their unused parking spaces.

This demand for space is hitting a host of sectors. Mintel reckons 38% of Chinese consumers say they prefer tubeless toilet roll to toilet roll with a tube since it saves space.

“In the beauty sector, we’ve seen businesses that rent out nail polishes and we’ll see more people signing up for unlimited visits to gyms, spas and salons for a monthly or annual fee.”

Low-hanging fruit

What else should investors take note of? For one, an extreme period of global drought is set to hit a number of agriculture commodities, warns Mintel.

In the US, California – which produces 80% of the world’s almonds – is suffering its worst drought in 1,200 years. Brazil – from where 35% of the world’s coffee beans originate, and also the world’s largest soybean producer – has been suffering its worst drought in 80 years.

Prolonged drought in Alberta, Canada could cause also grain production to drop by 25-30% in 2015, while drought in Thailand has left 960,000 hectares of land reserved for paddy fields barren, threatening global rice shortages.

We’re “likely to see shortages – and higher prices – in wine, beef and rice,” says Mintel. “Shortages will demand alternatives, so we may see more examples of foods like prickly pear pitched not just towards livestock, but to humans as well.”

It says we’ve already seen examples of this in the US, such as Open Nature’s Prickly Pear Sorbet and Spoetzl Brewery’s Shiner Prickly Pear Summer Seasonal Beer.

Water, water, but not everywhere

There are also massive implications for water.

Shortages will make clean water, as well as waterless alternatives, increasingly precious commodities, with potential politically charged implications.

“In 2016, as food and water shortages hit, prices will rise and water will become a major issue for retailers, manufacturers and consumers,” says Mintel.

“Consumers are alive to the need to conserve water for their own means and will warm to brands that can help achieve this at a personal and public level,” writes Mintel.

Again, we’re talking about a host of sectors.

In the household sector, consumers are keen to conserve water, with Mintel research finding that as many as 33% of UK consumers say they’d pay more for fittings that save on water or energy bills.
Bottled water, meanwhile, has the potential to become a “political hand grenade for brands”.

52% of Italian and 49% of French consumers are concerned about the environmental impact of drinking bottled water. While in the UK, 28% of consumers hold the same concerns, says Mintel.

It adds that more than three quarters of Spanish, Italian, French and German consumers are willing to pay more for washing up liquid that requires less water for rinsing.

Consumers are also open to less water-dependent and waterless products in beauty and personal care, with 28% of UK consumers and 33% of Italians saying that they would be interested in double concentrated bath or shower products.

Mintel estimates some 13% of UK consumers and 15% of French consumers say that they would be interested in dry soap, bath and shower products. Some 24% of UK 16-24 year olds and 28% of French 16-24 year olds say that they would be interested in dry use soap, bath and shower products.

Originally published here: https://news.markets/shares/why-the-prickly-pear-is-ripe-for-investment-8470/

Thursday, 7 January 2016

Bank of America names its top emerging picks for 2016


The year 2016 isn’t very old but it already looks as though prediction is a game for the very brave. Chinese shares have already chalked up two days of plunge and shutdown; there’s new froideur between Saudi Arabia and Iran; and it seems very possible that North Korea has a thermonuclear weapon we didn’t know about.

Still, the foretelling goes on, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch latest into the fray with its top emerging market calls for this year.

“Our top trades for 2016 look to take advantage of monetary policy divergence within developed markets, between DM and EM, and within EM,” the bank’s analysts write.

“We are cautious on the return outlook given risks of a faster Federal Reserve (monetary) tightening, a sharper Chinese slowdown, volatile oil prices and US high-yield unraveling,” they go on.

Its not likely to be a blockbuster year though, with forecast returns of 1% for local EM debt, -0.4% for over all EM foreign exchange and 2.7% for EM’s external sovereign debt.

So, here’s the list:

BoAML’s top foreign exchange pick is to be long both Mexico’s peso and Poland’s zloty against the euro, while being short a basket of Korean won, Malaysian ringgit against the dollar, and South Africa’s rand against the rouble – all on the basis of monetary policy divergence.

The bank’s favourite local-debt long positions are in Russia, India and Brazil.

It prefers Russian paper to Turkish, fretting that, “the latest news on macro policy and constitutional changes” raises the risk that Turkey will be stripped of its investment-grade credit ratings.

Those who like Argentina’s chances under its new, more conciliatory and market-friendly administration might like to consider its EUR GDP warrants, perhaps hedged in currency terms in order to minimise exposure policy transition there. BoAML has raised Argentina to overweight thanks to the change in government.

However, events in China are clouding the outlook. Its the largest EM, after all, and its start to the year has been an epic, just not one that’s been fun to watch.

“We remain cautious amid renewed Chinese slowdown concerns and the global equity market rout,” the bank’s analysts conclude.

This article first appeared here: https://news.markets/bonds/bank-america-names-top-emerging-picks-2016-7901/